Not Just the Weather: Collector Car Market Chills for Sixth Month in a Row

The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.

With a 0.38-point drop, the Hagerty Market Rating has now fallen for the sixth consecutive month. Since it’s peak in 2022, the Market Rating has lost a quarter of it’s value, decreasing for 36 out of 41 months. Its current value of 58.43 is the lowest the Rating has been since early 2011.

The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, has fared better this month, increasing 0.16-points to its current value of 172.48. That said, the Market Index has been on a downward trend the last few years, decreasing for 31 out of 35 months since its peak in late 2022.

Despite another overall drop for the Market Rating, a few individual metrics performed well this month. For the first time in over three years, the ratio of requests Hagerty receives to increase vs. decrease insured values for both high-end and broad market vehicles moved up this month. This suggests that these ratios have settled for the time being, and will likely hover around their current values for the foreseeable future. The current ratios are 6.3-to-1 for vehicles valued under $250,000, and 1.5-to-1 for high-end vehicles.

Overall Auction Activity saw its first increase in eight months, thanks primarily to a couple of Mecum and Barrett-Jackson auctions that added a significant bump to the number of cars sold. That said, these cars are selling at lower and lower prices. The real dollar value of the Median Sale Price at auction dropped 1% this month to $26,513, its lowest value in over five-and-a-half years. And when accounting for inflation, it’s at an all-time low. Similarly, the average sale price between private parties dropped this month and the ratio of cars selling above their insured value hit a 45-month low.

Inflation continues to be a major source of pain for the Hagerty Market Rating. While all four of our macro-economic indicators (S&P 500, Median Home Price, Total Retail Sales, and Gold Price) increased this month, when adjusted for inflation their combined metric dropped 1.67 points to its lowest value in five years.

Our industry experts also see the market contracting, but note that it is happening in some segments more than others. For Dave Kinney, publisher of the Hagerty Price Guide: “The market for the very top, the most expensive cars seems to be doing well. I’m seeing continued weakness in some 1960s and 1970s exotics, while those same marques appear to still be strong in 2005-and-up models. I remain concerned about the most affordable of classics, roughly the under $35,000 market, as talking to many owners, they are feeling the inflationary squeeze. If their hours get cut back (or worse), the ‘fun car’ might be on the chopping block.” Auction analyst and industry expert Rick Carey agreed: “The persistent market is in recent supercars which continue to sell for inflated optimistic prices to their own specific and small market of [speculators]. The rest of the market of collectors and enthusiasts is cautious, conservative and acutely aware of value. They’re paying less for cars (in many cases the same cars) now than they did six months to two years ago. It’s not catastrophic, it’s just contracting values.”

The Hagerty Market Rating is likely to fall again next month, as fewer auctions take place over the holiday season. However, in January, the classic car market will go through it’s biggest test of the year when thousands of vehicles cross the block in Arizona and Kissimmee. Will it be enough to reverse the Market Rating’s dive? I’m not holding my breath.