The Collector Car Market Is Now Flat

The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.

Last month, the Hagerty Market Rating dipped to pre-pandemic levels but avoided dropping below 60, which indicates a flat collector car market. After a 0.54-point drop this month, though, the rating has officially moved into the 50s. This is the first time since the fall of 2020 and only the second time in the last 13-and-a-half years that the Market Rating has been in the “flat market” territory. Since 2012, the Rating has kept steady in the 60s and 70s, while the market grew. But prior to 2012, a score in the 50s (and even the 40s) was very common.

The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, decreased by 0.60 points this month. In the 28 months following the Hagerty Market Index’s high point in late 2022, the Index has only increased twice. While currently at its lowest value in over three years, it is still relatively high compared to the Index’s 18-year-long history, as visible in the chart below.

Speaking of the stock market, various uncertainties in recent weeks have caused the markets to waver. Our combined macro-economic indicator dropped 1.32 points this month to its lowest value since early 2021. This was the largest single-month drop since the start of the 2020 pandemic. What makes this drop even more significant is that it occurred during a month when inflation actually reversed.

Despite dozens of seven-figure sales at the Florida auctions last month hitting our books, the Auction Median Sale Price dropped another 0.88 points this month. The 0.05% drop in inflation couldn’t outpace the $200 actual value drop in this metric. It’s current real value of $27,300 is the lowest Median Sale Price in nearly 5 years. When accounting for inflation, it’s at its all-time lowest point.

Prices in the private market have also been soft, with the Average Sale Price falling slightly to $24,289. Now, only 38.87% of cars are selling above their insured value despite insured values raising at a much slower pace than in years past. The ratio of insured value increases-to-decreases is at its lowest point in over three years for mainstream, broad-market vehicles and at its second lowest point in 5 years for vehicles valued over $250,000.

However, these high-dollar vehicles fared better in the newest release of the Hagerty Price Guide, which received an update on April 1. Of the seven individual metrics tied to the price guide, the Blue Chip Index—comprised of the average #2 (“excellent”) condition value of 25 seven-figure cars—was the only one to increase, albeit by only 0.10-points. On the other end of the spectrum, the Hagerty Hundred—our Price Guide index for the 100 most insured vehicles—dropped another 0.88 points to its lowest value to date. Average and median condition #3 (“good”) values dropped to their lowest points since late 2024, but were likely helped by the negative inflation this month.

As auction season slows a bit and the driving season begins, its likely that the Hagerty Market Rating will continue to slide. If it remains in the 50s next month, it will be the first time the Rating has seen consecutive months below 60 since mid-2011.